Climate (3901 words) Essay Example For Students

Climate (3901 words) Essay ClimateChangeOver the past years most individuals have become acutely aware that theintensity of human and economic development enjoyed over the 20th century cannotbe sustained. Material consumption and ever increasing populations are alreadystressing the earths ecosystems. How much more the earth can take remains avery heated issue. Here a look at the facts sheds some very dark light. In 1950,there were 2.5 billion people, while today there are 5.8 billion. There may wellbe 10 billion people on earth before the middle of the next century. Even moresignificant, on an ecological level, is the rise in per capita energy andmaterial consumption which, in the last 40 years, has soared faster than thehuman population. An irresistible economy seems to be on a collision coursewith an immovable ecosphere. Based on these facts alone, there is gravereason for concern. Taken further, it is even more frightening to note that,while man has affected the environment throughout his stay on earth, the impacthas been most intense in the relatively short industrial era. Since theindustrial revolution, and over the past century in particular, mansecological footprint on the earth has quickly grown from that of a child to oneof a giant. True, this period is heralded as an economic success story, which itcertainly has been. However, many argue that it seems increasingly likely thatthe path to mans success will soon slope downward to his demise. The climateis changing, and so must we. This paper will look at the coin of climate change,where on the one side the human impact on the earth will be shown, and on theother, the impact of earth on man. Such a study is inevitably somewhatpolemical, as it is still open to debate what the precise effects of man haveand will be on climate change, and also what climate change will mean to man. Itwill also be quite general in analysis, as a paper of this scope can allow nomore. What will be made clear, nevertheless, is that the relationship between man and earth is clearly changing. More specifically, man is outgrowing theearth. If the relationship is to continue?indeed prosper?then a new balanceneeds to be found. The issue of climate change holds one important key to thisbalance. Man and the Environment Thomas Malthus is well remembered for hisposition as a doomsayer. When looking at the rates of population growth inVictorian England, he saw unchecked growth as leading to a rapid decline in theliving standards of man. He blamed this decline on three main factors: theoverproduction of offspring; the inability of natural resources to sustainrising human population; and the irresponsibility of the lower classes toprevent their overpopulation. Very generally, Malthus suggested that this trendcould be controlled only if the family size of the lower classes was regulatedso that poor families would not produce more children than they could support. He predicted that the demand for food would inevitably become far greater thanthe available supply of it. This prediction was rooted in the thought thatpopulation, when unchecked, increased geometrically; i.e., 2,4,8,16,32 whilefood products, or as he called it ?subsistence, only grew at an arithmeticrate; i.e, 1,2,3,4,5, He provided only a basic economic reason for thishowever, and generally attributed famine, poverty and other catastrophicoccurrences to divine intervention (he was a very religious man, a clergyman, infact). He believed that such natural outcomes were essentially Gods way ofpreventing man from being lazy. The point here is not to provide an evaluationof Malthus, and one might well argue that he was wrong in many of hispredictions; but rather to highlight the posit that man has long been livingbeyond his means. Sooner or later, this will have its consequences. As aspecies, our success has certainly been impressive, but it has come by turning ablind-eye to our surroun dings. A prime reason for our success is ourflexibility as a switcher predator and scavenger. We are consummately adaptable,able to switch form one resource base?grasslands, forests or estuaries?toanother, as each is exploited to its maximum tolerance or use up. Like othersuccessful species we have learned to adapt ourselves to new environments. But,unlike other animals, we made a jump from being successful to being a runawaysuccess. We have made this jump because of our ability to adapt environments forour own uses in ways that no other animal can match. Whether or not man cancontinue to adapt to the emerging environment, however, is a difficult question. In a (literally) rapidly changing world, it is difficult to look back on past orpresent to divine the future. But, using Malthus line of reasoning, one wayor another mother nature will surely ?take care of us. Lack ofresources, environmental degradation, famine and disease will in the painfulfashion known by our ancestors cut our species back. AIDS is the obvious exampleof a way in which to do it.Conditions already exist in several Africancountries for the virus to kill more people than are being bornHowever, withits incubation period of as much as ten years or even more, AIDS is not aboom-and-bust infection like the Black Death. Unchecked it could move on atime-scale of 200 rather than 20 years. But the effects could be asdevastating. It is thus clear that we can not go on as we have in the past. The questions of ?when and ?how environmental degradation will catchup with us remain. In passing, it should be noted that there are several (weak)arguments to be made suggesting the patterns of climatic change that have, andwill still, occur to be quite beyond the understanding and influence of mortalmen. As argued by C. W. Thornthwaite in 1956, man is incapable of making anysignificant change in the climatic pattern on the earth; that the changes inmicroclimate for which he is responsible are so local and some so trivial thatspecial instruments are often required to detect them. Another interestingargument against the severity of global warming, forwarded by Meyer in 1996, isthe artefact of a transition of stationing weather observatories near citiesthat have grown considerably during the same period. And place this curve, withits relatively small fluctuations, net to one of natural temperature changesover the last 20,000 years, and one might well despair of hearing any humanimpact s against so noisy a background. These arguments bring to light thecontroversy that surrounds the urgency of global warming and climatic change. Indeed, standing alone they do make compelling assertions that can only becountered by the application of theory. As also noted by Meyer, only byadding a theoretical explanation of the workings of the climate system, theprocesses that generate the events that we experience as weather and the orderthat we discern as climate, can we suggest with some confidence what would havebeen or would be the consequences of particular human activities. TheImportance of Environmental Viability Before moving on, it is necessary tohighlight the importance of environmental viability. While this may already bewell known, it is equally apparent that most individuals do not perceive it asan immediate problem. For most, concern with the environment is a distantlong-term problem that does not require todays attention. This has much to dowith the lifestyle that has created the problems in the first place. In ourincreasingly interlinked world there is a common strive towards a ?globaleconomy which is charact erised by the swelling of liberalised trade andfinancial capital flows. Though it is not certain at this point where this willlead, it is very likely that the result will be increased economic activity and,in turn, increased material and resource consumption. For many, at least in thedeveloped world, this means increased prosperity and enhanced standards ofliving. The glamour of this lifestyle, however, tends to hide the ugly facts. Consider, for instance, that already at this stage of development, rates ofresource harvesting and waste generation deplete nature faster than it canregenerate.As the world becomes ecologically overloaded, conventionaleconomic development actually becomes self-destructive and impoverishing. Manyscholars believe that continuing on this historical path might even put our verysurvival at risk. In contrast to the impressions of many, the environment isan immediate problem. Though environmental concerns are widespread and many,perhaps the most challenging is the significant (30%) increase in greenhousegasses accumulated in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. At presentrates of increase, these greenhouse gasses will again double by the turn of thenext century. The effects this will have on the earths climate remaincontroversial, but most agree that the earths equilibrium temperature will beaffected. The argument here remains, how much? This question will be looked atin the fort hcoming section. Climatic Change It is not surprising to note at thisstage that fluctuations and changes in climate occur both spatially andtemporally, the causes of which are a source of much speculation andcontroversy. What is unequivocal is that the past 2 to 3*106 years (and more)have been characterised more by change than by constancy. It is equally apparentthat climatic change, whether it is a response to natural or cultural stimuli,is complex. It is not yet understood which factors, either singly or incombination, create positive feedback, nor is it understood how theyinteract. Even further, the indices of climatic and environmental change overthe past 2 to 3*106 years have been proxy records, which makes theidentification of their underlying causes a formidable task. Having noted theseinherent problems, its is possible to objectively evaluate some of thepredictions that have been forwarded over time. There are several ways by whichclimatic change can be recorded and understo od. Three of the most well known arequaternary subdivisions based on the terrestrial record, ocean sediment cores,and ice cores. These methods have been used in isolation and also in conjunctionwith one another. Of particular interest here is the growing body of data thathas been collected from ice cores that is contributing to studies ofenvironmental change and aiding correlations between polar, continental andocean sediment records. The polar ice sheets and those of high tropicalmountains are nourished by precipitation from the atmosphere, the composition ofwhich is thus recorded as successive layers of ice accumulate. Such recordsprovide information on environmental change over the past ca. 200K years andbase line data from pre-and post-industrial levels for the biogeochemicalcycling of metals such as lead. Over the past century, countless theoriesabout climate change have been advanced and tested using the above techniques. Hamlets procrastination and co EssayExisting lakes and inland seas do have some measurable effects on temperatureand humidity in the ribbon of land along their shores, but no so large and sowidespread as ordinarily to justify creating new ones as climatic generators.The same type of controversy surrounds the desertification of land. Looking tothe cases of the desertification of the middle east, northern Africa, and India,it is argued that overgrazing by livestock both raised the albedo of thesurface and injected dust into the air; thus altering the regional heat balanceby reflecting away more solar radiation. A net cooling from these processes thenpromoted atmospheric stability and suppressed rainfall; the vegetation witheredunder the lessened rainfall and more dust swirled upward, magnifying theoriginal impact. The example of the diminishing rainforests provides anothergood, though controversial, case. As has been witnessed in these regions to somedegree, changing the earths physi cal landscape can have affects onmicroclimates. Cities, too, have witnessed some significant climatic changes asa result of increased urbanisation. The well-known ?heat island effect;i.e., a net elevation of temperatures above those found in the adjacentcountryside, has been well documented. It stems particularly from changes inthe land surface and the energy budget. Cities themselves generate much of theheat in which they bask or swelter. The roughness of the urban land surfaceretards the speed of the winds, and thus lessens the dispersion of heat; theimpermeable and well-drained surface is less moist, and so less heat is lostthrough evaporation; and the structures and surfaces typical of the city absorband retain heat at high rates. This increased heat may in turn result in fog,storms, precipitation induced by convective heating and pollution condensation. On a larger regional level, the distribution of species will be affected byclimatic change, which is likely to have widespread consequences for human life. Agricultural pests will be displaced, and the incidence of ?disease vectorsthrough the spread of malaria carrying mosquitoes, for instance, will affect thehealth and well-being of human populations. Mannion makes the observation thatareas of high altitude are those which have been most directly affected bythe advance and retreat of glaciers and ice caps. Indeed, the Arctic andAntarctic zones are currently experiencing glaciation, and it is from theseareas that much can be learned about glaciation. Many others share this positthat higher altitude will be more affected, but how much more remains thequestion. In sum, it must be said that the diversity of the earths surfacetranslates into a diversity of physical impacts of global changes, differentsocial impacts even of similar physical ones, different expectations of theirimpacts?which , of course, have often been wide of the mark?and differentcosts that any globally uniform change in behaviour would incur. Based onthis observation, it is quite likely that landlocked countries have nothing tofear in terms of rising sea levels, and areas that have traditionallyexperienced poor levels of rainfall may actually benefit from increasedprecipitation. Canada, however, as a nation that is very dependent onagriculture, forestry, and fisheries?and thus more dependent on climaticconditions?will likely be quite vulnerable to any climatic shifts. In general,however, it can be said that climate change may create opportunities for gainas well as for loss, but countries with different endowments of skills andcapital will differ in their ability to exploit those opportunities.Conclusion As has been advanced throughout this paper, there is a considerabledegree of uncertainty surrounding the climatic future of the earth. This,according to Mannion, highlights the complexity of the climate system and theinadequacy of current scientific understanding. This vein of thought also ranthrough the Rio Earth Summit, which recognised the realit y of global warming,but also the substantial scientific uncertainty with regard to its timing andmagnitude. This lingering confusion has made the problem of global environmentalchange the largest single problem facing the world scientific community.But, while the precise impact of mans footprint on the earth cannot bemeasured with great accuracy, there is no reasonable man who will argue thatcurrent rates of consumption are either beneficial or wholly necessary. Indeed,it is quite intuitive to conclude that increasing industrialisation andincreased economic output is a step in the wrong direction, at least in terms ofthe environments wellbeing. Given the state of present day research, it hasreasonably been estimated that under a business as usual scenario ofcontinued growth of fossil fuel use, and hence of greenhouse gas emissions, theglobal average temperature is estimated to rise at a rate close to 0.3C perdecade?a rate which is probably greater than any that has occurred on earth since the end of the last ice age, some 10,000 years ago. Associated with therise in global average temperature will be substantial changes in regionalclimate, especially in the intensity and frequency of droughts and floods.Though impossible to prove, in aggregate it has been argued that the change willbe large and greater than the earth has seen since the last ice age. If this iseven close to the truth, it is very likely that human beings and the earthsecosystems will not be able to sustain the pace of change in their presentsurroundings. What will happen at the regional and local level, however, is muchmore difficult to predict though in some cases, will likely be even moredevastating. From what has been shown in this paper, there is distinct reason tosuspect that higher latitudes will experience greater overall warming than lowerlatitudes. If this is indeed the case, the release of vast stores of carbonfrom the tundra peatlands and boreal zone will reinforce global warming. Moreover, if there are further reductions in acidic emissions, which at currentlevels cause a counteracting effect, global warming will be accelerated. Putsimply, this is not a good thing. Quantifying the extent of the potential damageis not only beyond the scope of this paper, but perhaps beyond humancomprehension (at this point) and even worse, missing the point. The onlycertainty about future climatic change is indeed uncertainty of its extent. Itmight not be wrong, given such circumstances, to prepare for the worst. Thepicture that this study has painted is, quite apparently, confusing and sombre. However, there is a faint stroke of optimism that can be added. E. G. Nisbetnotes that despite our losses, we are intellectually and physically richerthan any other generation of humanity. Our poverty is spiritual. It is wellwithin our power to be optimists, if we can dispel the cynicism of the pastdecades. If we are optimists, most things are possible. The challenge to cherishthe planet, to construct a new global economy, is far less than the challenge,in 1940, to defeat the last threat against human hope. This strain ofreasoning provides a welcome contrast to the depressing observation noted byBarrett at the opening of this study. And it is true, there is nothing tosuggest that we are firmly locked into a future that is condemned. For the firsttime in history, it may well be possible for a balance to be found between manand nature. BibliographyArcher, Eileen (1994) People and the Environment: Preserving the Balance,London: Association of Commonwealth Universities Goulde, Andrew (1997) The HumanImpact Reader, Oxford: Blackwell Publishers Mannion, A. M. (1997) GlobalEnvironmental Change: A Natural and Cultural Environmental History, New York:Longman Press Meyer, William B. (1996) Human Impact on the Earth, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press Nisbet, E. G. (1991) Leaving Eden: To Protect andManage the Earth, New York: Cambridge University Press Wackernagel, Mathis.,Rees, William (1996) Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on theEarth, Philadelphia: New Society Publishers Westphal, Dale., Westphal, Fred(1994) Planet in Peril, Toronto: Harcourt Brace